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Download Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction fb2, epub

by Huug van den Dool

Download Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction fb2, epub

ISBN: 0199202788
Author: Huug van den Dool
Language: English
Publisher: Oxford University Press; 1 edition (February 8, 2007)
Pages: 240
Category: Mathematics
Subcategory: Science
Rating: 4.7
Votes: 588
Size Fb2: 1584 kb
Size ePub: 1574 kb
Size Djvu: 1379 kb
Other formats: azw docx lit lrf


Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the release of global coverage data sets, and in prediction methods themselves.

Huug van den Dool, Principal Scientist, CPC and Adjunct Professor, University of Maryland.

Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the release of global coverage data sets, and in prediction methods themselves. Huug van den Dool, Principal Scientist, CPC and Adjunct Professor, University of Maryland. Contributors: Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction.

Huug van den Dool gained his PhD in Dynamical Meteorology from the University of Utrecht in 1975. He is currently a principal scientist at CPC and an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland.

Главная The Geographical Journal Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Predictionby Huug . Other readers will always be interested in your opinion of the books you've read.

Главная The Geographical Journal Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Predictionby Huug Van Den Dool. The Geographical Journal 2009, 03 Vol. 175; Iss. 1. Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Predictionby Huug Van Den Dool. Whether you've loved the book or not, if you give your honest and detailed thoughts then people will find new books that are right for them. A New Trichoplusia ni Cell Line for Membrane Protein Expression Using a Baculovirus Expression Vector System.

Some error text about your books and stuff. by Huug Van Den Dool. Description: Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology): ForewordPreface1: Introduction2: Background on orthogonal functions and covariance3: Empirical wave propagation4: Teleconnections5: Empirical orthogonal functions6: Degrees of freedom7: Analogues8: Methods in short-term climate prediction9: The practice of short-term climate prediction10: Index.

Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction.

Other readers will always be interested in your opinion of the books you've read.

This study provides a baseline skill assessment of the current method of creating probabilistic forecasts from the NMME system. For forecasts in the above- and below-normal terciles for all variables and geographical regions examined in this study, BSS for NMME forecasts is higher than BSS for CFSv2 forecasts. Forecasts for extremes in short-term climate (monthly means) are examined to understand the current prediction capability and potential predictability.

Full description Dool, Huug van den. Format: eBook.

Climate prediction over the near-term, from . Empirical methods are based on observations and exploit statistical relationships to represent physical processes. van den Dool, H. M. (2007) Empirical methods in short-term climate prediction, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Climate prediction over the near-term, from seasons to multiple decades ahead, has received much attention over recent years for its potential to inform decisions in areas such as risk management and adaptation plan-ning (Smith et al. 2012; Kirtman et al. 2013; Doblas-Reyes et a. Dunstone, N. & Smith, D. (2010).

This clear and accessible text describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of 2 weeks to a year. Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the release of global coverage data sets, and in prediction methods themselves. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, the text covers in detail empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue. It also provides a detailed description of nearly all methods used operationally in long-lead seasonal forecasts, with new examples and illustrations. The challenges of making a real time forecast are discussed, including protocol, format, and perceptions about users. Based where possible on global data sets, illustrations are not limited to the Northern Hemisphere, but include several examples from the Southern Hemisphere.

Comments:

Joony
The book gives an excellent background into the methods used to make short term climate predictions for the time frame of two weeks up to two months. Much research is going forward in this area and the book gives a good background into the current state of the art.
Ce
Jokes about weather predictions are as old as those predictions. But joking aside, the book shows gradual and steady improvements in predictive power. Unsurprisingly, some of this is driven by cheaper computing power. But the book really does not discuss that. Instead the advances are due to deeper reasons. Like improved modelling of wave dispersion from an initial event.

Examples in the text include a change in the choice of basis functions and the dimensionality of the modelling. Some of the discussion takes the reader right back to introductory linear algebra and the construction of orthogonal functions. This is done empirically in one chapter.

The narrative also looks further out, at climatology, as opposed to weather predictions. Here, the intersection with the initial thread is in the short term climate predictions, which in fact forms the main thrust of the book. Overall, the text is very encouraging. No limits are suggested to future improvements.
Fato
Very good book, I found it very useful, especially the latter chapters.

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